Putin’s reshuffle of Ukrainian military command reveals power struggle

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest reshuffle of the top brass in charge of operations in Ukraine reveals a deeper power struggle between Moscow’s military command and its domestic critics, analysts say.

One of the most prominent and powerful critics of Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group – a private military company fighting in Ukraine. Prigozhin criticized the defense chiefs for a series of losses and humiliating retreats during the war.

His criticisms seemed to bear fruit with the appointment in October of General Sergei Surovikin as the overall battlefield commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. Prigozhin praised the designation and described Surovikin – nicknamed “General Armageddon – as ‘the most capable commander in the Russian army’.

Surovikin then oversaw a massive aerial bombardment of Ukraine, damaging much of its energy infrastructure in the early winter. He also had the unenviable task of suggesting (in what appeared to be a choreographed meeting on Russian TV) to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that Russian troops should withdraw from part of Kherson in southern Ukraine in November – an unpopular decision that was nevertheless approved by Prigozhin.

Surovikin’s term ended just three months later. With little territorial gains to show in Ukraine, he was replaced on Wednesday by Commanding General Valery Gerasimov and named his deputy, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Gerasimov is a Putin loyalist and was Russia’s highest-ranking uniformed officer in his previous role as head of Russia’s armed forces.

Analysts say the replacement could indicate Moscow’s change in sentiment towards Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, in addition to Putin’s dissatisfaction with the lack of tactical advances in the Moscow-style “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Putin’s longtime associate and ally Prigozhin became more outspoken during the war as his private military company, some 50,000 strong – which also recruits from Russian prisons – achieved on-the-spot successes of battle. Nevertheless, Prigozhin’s criticisms of Russian military commanders and frequent boasting about the triumphs of the Wagner Group sparked ruckus in Moscow.

On Tuesday, Prigozhin claimed his military company had single-handedly taken control of Soledar in Donetsk, a key target and the site of intense clashes for months. The Kremlin was much more cautious about declaring victory, however, and the Russian Defense Ministry said its elite airborne forces surrounded Soledar from the north and south while fighting continued in the city center. .

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of Warfare said Gerasimov’s promotion and broader command overhaul were likely aimed at bolstering “traditional power structures” like the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) against challenges from Prigozhin and other “siloviki” – or “strongmen” – who criticized Moscow’s Ukrainian military strategy.

“Gerasimov’s appointment as theater commander likely advances two Kremlin efforts: an attempt to improve Russian command and control for a decisive military effort in 2023, and a political move to bolster the Defense Ministry. russian vs russian millblogger challenges and siloviki, such as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, who criticized the Kremlin’s conduct of the war,” ISW analysts said in an assessment late Wednesday.

“The elevation of Gerasimov and the Russian MoD above Surovikin, a favorite of Prigozhin and the siloviki faction, is furthermore very likely to have been partly a political decision to reassert the primacy of the Russian Defense Ministry in an internal Russian power struggle,” they added. Gerasimov’s promotion could also be “a signal for Prigozhin and other actors to reduce their criticism of the MoD.”

“Prigozhin relentlessly promoted the Wagner Group to the detriment of the reputation of the Russian Defense Ministry and could double down on his flashy advertisements on Russian social networks and state-affiliated media to assert the superiority of his forces,” concluded the ISW.

Britain’s Ministry of Defense also commented on the reshuffle on Wednesday, calling it an indication “of the growing gravity of the situation facing Russia, and a clear recognition that the campaign falls short of Russia’s strategic objectives.” Russia”.

He added that the move was likely to be met with “extreme displeasure” by much of Russia’s ultra-nationalist and military blogging community, “who increasingly blamed Gerasimov for the war’s poor execution. “.

“By contrast, Surovikin has been widely praised by this community for his advocacy of a more realistic approach. As deputy commander, his authority and influence are almost certainly greatly reduced.”

Surovikin could benefit from not being in charge, according to political scientist Mark Galeotti, who said Gerasimov was given “the most poisonous chalice”.

“For Gerasimov…it’s a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisonous chalice. It’s now upon him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again,” said Galeotti, chief of staff of consultancy Mayak Intelligence, on Twitter on Wednesday. .

“It is quite clear that there will be spring offensives… There may be some advances, but nothing decisive (and the Ukrainians themselves will consider a spring offensive). In many ways, I don’t think Moscow’s strategy depends on victory on the battlefield anyway – it’s more a matter of politics. In other words, demonstrating to the West that Russia is here for the long haul and hope that we will lose the will and the unity to continue supporting Kyiv,” he said.